Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Which children do better than their parents, by race/ethnicity

Monday, July 16th, 2018

We study five racial and ethnic groups: people of Hispanic ethnicity and non-Hispanic whites, blacks, Asians, and American Indians. By analysing rates of upward and downward mobility across generations for these groups, we quantify how their incomes change and predict their future earnings trajectories.

Hispanic Americans have rates of upward income mobility across generations that are slightly below those of whites. Hispanics are therefore on a path to moving up substantially in the income distribution across generations, potentially closing much of the present gap between their incomes’ and those of white Americans.

Asian immigrants have much higher levels of upward mobility than all other groups, but Asian children whose parents were born in the US have levels of intergenerational mobility similar to white children. This makes it more difficult to predict the trajectory of Asian Americans’ incomes, but Asians appear likely to remain at income levels comparable to or above white Americans in the long run.

In contrast, black and American Indian children have substantially lower rates of upward mobility than the other racial groups.

From: Race and economic opportunity in the United States, by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, Sonya R. Porter 27 June 2018


Religious affiliation of immigrants

Saturday, July 14th, 2018

86% of immigrants express a religious affiliation. This is much higher than for the United States as a whole, where 77% say they are affiliated. In other words, immigrants increase the number of persons who practice a religion.

According to Pew Research, while Christians continue to make up a majority of legal immigrants to the U.S., the estimated share of new legal permanent residents who are Christian declined from 68% in 1992 to 61% in 2012. Over the same period, the estimated share of green card recipients who belong to religious minorities rose from approximately one-in-five (19%) to one-in-four (25%). This includes growing shares of Muslims (5% in 1992, 10% in 2012) and Hindus (3% in 1992, 7% in 2012). The share of Buddhists, however, is slightly smaller (7% in 1992, 6% in 2012), while the portion of legal immigrants who are religiously unaffiliated (atheist, agnostic or nothing in particular) has remained relatively stable, at about 14% per year.

Unauthorized immigrants, by contrast, come primarily from Latin America and the Caribbean, and the overwhelming majority of them – an estimated 83% – are Christian. That share is slightly higher than the percentage of Christians in the U.S. population as a whole (estimated at just under 80% of U.S. residents of all ages, as of 2010).

How to de-toxify the immigration issue

Wednesday, July 11th, 2018

U of California-Hasting law professor Joan Williams says in the WSJ (gated) there are three steps to reduce the anti-immigration fears and retentments of blue collar America:

One: The first is to recognize that the nation-state matters greatly for nonelites in developed countries. Dismissing national pride as nothing more than racism is a recipe for class conflict and more racism. Better by far to embrace national pride, balance it with concern for those outside the nation, and refuse to allow racism to pose as national pride.

Two: The second step is to highlight the ways President Trump’s immigration and trade policies are hurting red-state constituencies that voted for him. Critics can point to farmers unable to find farmworkers, small-business owners unable to find dishwashers, and construction workers hit hard by steel tariffs.

Three: The third step is to fight the scapegoating of immigrants by ensuring that hardworking Americans without college degrees can find good jobs.

Why do Central Americans migrate?

Sunday, July 8th, 2018

Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a global fellow at the Wilson Center who has interviewed hundreds of Central American migrants in the field, said that they are primarily motivated to leave their countries by violence and lack of economic opportunities, phenomena which she described as closely connected.

She said these migrant families choose the United States because they often have networks in the country already and know that there are many job opportunities. “There are push and pull factors. The push factors are the lack of economic opportunities and the security problems in their countries. It’s a mix of these conditions. The pull factors are of course the jobs and the families.”

Even with steep drops in the number of recorded murders in the past year, El Salvador and Honduras, the home countries of many migrants, are still among the most dangerous countries in the world. Poverty is hammering away at livelihoods in much of Central America, and for some, the decision to leave is a gamble on a better life.

From here.






Trump’s Four Pinocchios Score on his crime figures

Saturday, July 7th, 2018

On June 22, President Trump fabricated numbers to assert that illegal immigrants are dangerous criminals. The Washington Post awarded him the maximum four Pinocchios.

He assigned to illegal aliens (about 11 million) crime numbers which he took from an accounting of all aliens, which includes legal and not naturalized aliens of about 13 million.

He used figures collected over very many years but attributed them to seven (2011 – 2018).

He used the percentage of persons in federal prison who are aliens (legal and illegal) to proportion state and local crimes to illegal aliens. A relatively high federal prison count of aliens is heavily weighted by immigration and drug crimes. Trump used this federal prison inmate ratio to estimate murders (a state crime for the most part) committed committed by illegal aliens.

In fact, the crime rates among both legal and illegal immigrants are below those of citizens. And, the percentage of inmates in state and local prisons who are aliens is well below the percentage of persons in the United States who are aliens.

White population began to decline in 2016

Friday, July 6th, 2018

For the first time since the Census Bureau has released annual statistics, they show for 2016 and 2017 an absolute decline in the nation’s white non-Hispanic population—accelerating a phenomenon that was not projected to occur until 2023.

For the first time, minorities outnumber whites nationally for each age under 10. While earlier estimates revealed “minority white” status for some of these youthful ages, this is now solidly the case for individuals born in each year since 2007. Whites under the age of 10 sustained a loss of 1.2 million between 2010 and 2017, according to the new estimates. This loss of youthful whites is fairly pervasive, occurring in 43 states and 81 of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas.

Minorities have not stopped all geographic areas from child population decline but they contributed to gains in the under age 10 populations for 17 states and the District of Columbia, 48 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, and over 800 counties. Some of these gains are attributable to immigration, but in fact, only 38 percent of total minority growth is due to immigration

Pre-millennials: 68.4% white
Millennials (1984 – 2000): 55.8% white
Post-millennials (post 2000 as of 2015): 51.5% white

From Brookings here and here

America’s great internal migration

Wednesday, July 4th, 2018

What happened when much of the country’s African-American population migration from the South to the North?

In the South, “black outmigration between 1940 and 1970 (4 million, or 40% of African-Americans) from southern counties: i) favored the mechanization of agriculture, in turn increasing the average value per acre of farmed land; ii) induced planters to change their crop-mix, switching away from labor intensive crops such as cotton; and iii) reduced the share of blacks working as farm tenants, likely because white planters shifted from sharecropping on small plots to hired labor on consolidated farms.”

In the North, tracking the northern migration of 1.5 million African-Americans between 1910 and 1930: “Black arrivals increased both the effort exerted by immigrants and their eventual Americanization. These average effects mask substantial heterogeneity: while initially less integrated groups (i.e. Southern and Eastern Europeans) exerted more effort, assimilation success was larger for those that were culturally closer to native whites (i.e. Western and Northern Europeans). These patterns are consistent with a framework in which perceptions of racial threat among native whites lower the barriers to the assimilation of white immigrants.”

These findings from the talented Marco Tabellini.

Re-Definition of ‘Public Charge’ Could Drastically Slash Family Immigration

Monday, July 2nd, 2018

Thomas Ewing writes about a planned Executive Branch change in immigration policy for “public charges” which will severely impact immigrants with moderate to low household income. It would make them ineligible for green cards. It may lead to expulsions. He says, “If these measures are translated into federal regulations, the share of immigrants who would qualify as a public charge would skyrocket.”

The Migration Policy Institute says that Applying the definition of public charge outlined in the March 2018 leaked draft, MPI estimates the share of non citizens who could face a public-charge determination based on benefits use would increase more than 15-fold—from 3 percent under current policy to 47 percent under the terms of the draft rule.

The covered benefits are very popular among native-born Americans — 31% use them, per the  MPI which estimates that 36% of naturalized citizens use them and 47% of non-citizen immigrants use them.

The administration plans to add to the circumstances under which a non-U.S. citizen is deemed a public charge—meaning someone who depends on government means-tested benefits or is likely to depend upon these benefits in the future. Being a public charge is grounds for inadmissibility into the country, and—depending on how far the administration wants to take this—might even become grounds for deportation as well.

If the policy is implemented, an immigrant would also be considered a public charge if he or she utilized (or might have to utilize) for herself or for her dependents, even if American citizens, non-cash benefits such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Medicaid, and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

Let’s look at SNAP beneficiaries. According to here, cross monthly income — that is, household income before any of the program’s deductions are applied — generally must be at or below 130 percent of the poverty line. 130 percent of the poverty line for a three-person family is $2,213. The poverty level is higher for bigger families and lower for smaller families.

The Federal minimum wage now is $7.25 per hour. Full-time work at this level yields monthly earnings of $1,256 monthly. The average monthly SNAP benefit is $254.

But a better way to look at SNAP eligibility is to see that for working age households, SNAP is often used during temporary periods of unemployment, such as for seasonal workers. The planned new policy will put at severe risk low income households in seasonal work.

Also go here.


Modern day slavery legislation

Saturday, June 30th, 2018

Not since the days of slavery have so many residents of the United States lacked the most basic social, economic, and human rights.”

The management of entirely unregulated trans-border labor force of millions of workers with low formal education, including recruitment and employment, has been driven by corporate employers in agriculture, textiles, and meat processing. From the early decades of the 20th Century, whole sectors of the American economy have been staffed by persons with to legal status. Their employers have defeated efforts to normalize the employment relationship. Programs to coordinate the North American economy, including NAFTA, left this trans-border workforce unrelated. Corporate employers have essentially kept the world’s largest trans-border workforce out of government oversight.

Rather than to regulate in a way consistent with 20th Century standards of worker protections and of dispute resolution, the United States practiced benign neglect on these employment relations, with some exceptions, and  tried and consistently failed to influence them indirectly by Mexican border control.

Immigration restrictionists have to come to terms with those employers who depend on these workers. Goodlatte’s Agricultural Guest Worker Act (H.R. 4092) would regulate the workforce by formally recognizing guest workers as persons of sharply diminished rights.

The bill would arm employers with overwhelming control over employment conditions, including mandatory arbitration, reporting within 72 hours if a worker quits, mandatory periodic return to country of origin with no obligation of the employer to pay for transportation, barring family members to accompany the worker, and barring of access to common supports for low wage workers such as SNAP food stamps, federal community health center care, and federally funded legal aid. The bill would essentially close of much of the farming workforce from U.S. citizens and create a closed pool of vulnerable temporary workers.

Farmworker Justice is at the forefront of tackling this bill.

How an African sought asylum at the Tijuana / U.S border

Saturday, June 30th, 2018

An extraordinary article describes Tijuana today, crammed with persons deported from the U.S., and others trying to get into the U.S. as asylees. Here is a snapshot of one asylum seeker from Guinea:

“Three young Guinean men stood in a group, evidently nervous. One had a bandage around his foot from a snake bite suffered in a South American jungle. Another, named Alpha Barry, had quick, friendly eyes and a wide smile and deep scars across his lips. Barry’s front teeth had been shattered. He told me that he was a member of a large ethnic group called the Peul that is scattered across West Africa and currently in conflict with the Malinke and Sousou ethnic groups in Guinea. Barry ran an internet café in Conakry, the Guinean capital, until somebody stole his computers. He reported the loss to police only to have the thieves return and beat him so severely that he spent two months in a coma and emerged with a severe stutter.

“Many Guinean asylum-seekers flee across the Mediterranean into Europe. Barry had a cousin in Maryland, so he chose the Western Hemisphere analogue. He flew to Brazil, where Guineans can get tourist visas, then rode buses north. In Colombia, he joined migrants from all over the world — Pakistanis, Eritreans, Nepalis, and Malians — for the 60-mile walk through the Darién Gap, a roadless rainforest that separates Colombia from Panama and harbors jaguars, FARC rebels, and right-wing paramilitaries. Navigating by scraps of cloth tied to trees, they were all bound for Tijuana. Migrants shudder when they speak of this part of the passage; they describe bandits routinely robbing and raping migrants, dead bodies by the trail, and people slipping off cliffs and drowning in rivers. Barry crossed Panama next and then walked across Nicaragua at night to avoid criminal gangs. Once he reached Honduras, he started riding buses north.”

The article provides this context:

“In the summer of 2016, a wave of migrants from outside Latin America began arriving in Tijuana. The collapsing Brazilian economy was one reason, as thousands of Haitian-born workers there fled north. The escalating global refugee crisis also contributed, as ports of entry across the U.S. southern border reported 150 percent increase in asylum applicants over the previous year, including 2,788 Indians, 1,717 Chinese, 1,672 Romanians, 518 Bangladeshis, 531 Nepalis, 583 Ghanaians, 408 Cameroonians, 293 Eritreans, 158 Guineans, and many others.

“Everyone was coming to the front door from everywhere in the world,” says Father Patrick Murphy, the Catholic priest who runs Casa del Migrante. “From May 2016 until January 2017, we had 2,000 refugees from 32 different countries. You had to pull out Google translator and figure stuff out.”

Source: California Sunday Magazine