Archive for the ‘Demographics’ Category

Hispanic vote in mid-term elections

Saturday, November 10th, 2018

A record 29 million Latinos were eligible to vote – 12.8% of all eligible voters, a new high. In actual voting, Latinos appeared to be 11% of voters. An estimated 69% of Latinos voted for the Democratic candidate and 29% backed the Republican candidate.

27% of Latino voters said they were voting for the first time, compared with 18% of black voters and 12% of white voters.

Texas: in the Senate race, 64% of Latinos voted for Democrat Beto O’Rourke while 35% voted for Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

Florida: In the Senate race, 54% of Hispanics voted for Democrat Bill Nelson and 45% backed Republican Rick Scott. Latinos voted similarly in the race for governor, with 54% of Hispanics voting for Democrat Andrew Gillum and 44% voting for Republican Ron DeSantis. Latino registrations were 8.4% higher than in 2016.

From Pew Research

Hispanic voters in Florida growing fast

Monday, November 5th, 2018

The number of Hispanics eligible to vote in Florida has reached a high of nearly 3 million this year, up from 2.9 million from 2016. As of August 31, there are about 837,000 registered Democrats, 775,000 unaffiliated voters, 527,000 Republicans for a total of 2,139,000 or about 70% of eligible Hispanic voters.

Nationwide, eligible Hispanic voters register to vote much less (57%) than the national average (70%).

Since 2010, all registered voters have increased every two years by an average of 3.9%. Hispanic registered voters have increased by an average of 11.8%. Today they account for 16.4% of all registered voters.

Some of the Hispanic voter growth may be due to Puerto Ricans. Puerto Ricans have been the state’s fastest-growing Hispanic-origin group over the past decade. The state’s Puerto Rican population now rivals that of New York, the main destination of the mid-20th century’s migration from the island. They make up a third (31%) of Florida’s Hispanic adult citizens, a similar share to that of Cubans (31%),

Since the 2016 election, the number of Hispanics registered as Democrats has increased by 5%, approximately twice the 2% growth rate for Hispanics registered as Republicans. The number of Hispanic registered voters with no party affiliation has grown the fastest (14%).

From Pew Research

Why Trump focuses on immigration so much – survey data

Saturday, November 3rd, 2018

Devoted Conservatives comprise 6% of the public; Traditional Conservatives 19%; and Moderates, 15%. These blocks make up the vast majority of those who vote Republican. Except for Devoted Conservatives, these blocks tend to agree with value-based immigration policy, such as that America should bear some of the burden. of taking in refugees fleeing from war or persecution. A majority of them support DACA children gaining citizenship. (Even Devoted Conservatives agree by 48%.)

Where opinion breaks hard against immigration is when law and order and national security come in. 88% percent of Devoted Conservatives and 64% of Traditional Conservatives support a Muslim travel ban, which they view as an exercise of sovereignty that is consistent with prioritizing America’s national security. By contrast, it is supported by just 29% of Moderates

The Conservative segments are more sensitive to immigration issues than other groups. 74% of Devoted Conservatives say they think about issues related to immigration at least once a week, more than twice the national average (36%) and significantly more than Traditional Conservatives (44%). 60% of Devoted Conservatives say that issues of immigration “make me very frustrated,” nearly three times as much as the national average (22%).

From Hidden Tribes report.

Youth in America today

Sunday, October 28th, 2018

Latinos account for about half or more of all K-12 students in three states – New Mexico (61%), California (52%) and Texas (49%).

The population of the youngest Latinos, those under 18 years old, grew by 22% from 2006 to 2016, a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data finds. This growth helped keep the nation’s youth population steady at about 73 million over the past decade. During this time, the under-18 population of whites and blacks declined by 11% and 7%, respectively. Among Asian Americans, a group with a fast-growing population overall, the number of people under 18 years old jumped by 21%. But at 3.5 million, this group is far smaller than the under-18 Hispanic population of 18.3 million.

Latinos accounted for 25% of the nation’s 54 million K-12 students in 2016, up from 16% in 2000. In 14 states, Latinos accounted for at least 20% of K-12 students in 2016, up from six states in 2000, according to Census Bureau data. States new to this list in 2016 are Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Washington. Latinos account for about half or more of all K-12 students in three states – New Mexico (61%), California (52%) and Texas (49%).

From here.

Rising number immigrants who are college grads and/or speak English

Wednesday, October 24th, 2018

Today, immigrants account for 17% of all college educated adults in the U.S. compared with 10% in 1990. The rise in college education and English proficiency began about ten years ago – when Asian immigration overtook Latin American immigration.

When you take into account all foreigners in the U.S., 48% of foreigners 25 years or older came to the United States between 2011 and 2015 with college graduates compared to 31% of US born adults and 2015. Half of the college educated immigrants are from Asia. There are more recent college educated foreigners who arrived from Latin American than from Europe.

This high rate exists because of temporary visa holders, who (in the 2011-105 period) were 84% college educated compared with 33% among those awarded green cards in this period. The college education rate of recent naturalizations was 31%.

The percentage of recent immigrants with college degrees is 10% to 20% higher in most states than the college educated percentage of native born persons. The college education rate of recently arriving foreigners 25 years or older ranges from the low 80s in Vermont and District of Columbia to 25% in Arkansas (and lower in MT and SD).

Still, most immigrants arrive with limited English proficiency – 57%, through that percentage has declined from 66%. As of 2015, 34% of immigrants were bilingual, meaning they spoke English well and another language at home. Another 16% spoke only English at home.

The following is the percentage of all immigrants 18 or older who spoke only English at home or who were bilingual (spoke English “very well”), by date of arrival:

1986 – 1990: 35%

1996- 2000: 34%

2006 – 2010: 36%

2011- 2015: 43%

From here.


The big wave of Italian immigrants

Sunday, October 14th, 2018

Most of first large scale generation of Italian immigrants took their first steps on U.S. soil in Ellis Island. In the 1880s, they numbered 300,000; in the 1890s, 600,000; in the decade after that, more than two million. By 1920, when immigration began to taper off, more than 4 million Italians had come to the United States, and represented more than 10 percent of the nation’s foreign-born population.

What brought about this dramatic surge in immigration? The causes are complex, and each hopeful individual or family no doubt had a unique story. By the late 19th century, the peninsula of Italy had finally been brought under one flag, but the land and the people were by no means unified. Decades of internal strife had left a legacy of violence, social chaos, and widespread poverty. The peasants in the primarily poor, mostly rural south of Italy and on the island of Sicily had little hope of improving their lot.

There were a significant number of single men among these immigrants, and many came only to stay a short time. Within five years, between 30 and 50 percent of this generation of immigrants would return home to Italy, where they were known as ritornati.

Those who stayed usually remained in close contact with their family in the old country, and worked hard in order to have money to send back home. In 1896, a government commission on Italian immigration estimated that Italian immigrants sent or took home between $4 million and $30 million each year, and that “the marked increase in the wealth of certain sections of Italy can be traced directly to the money earned in the United States.”

From Library of Congress

Hispanic purchasing and voting power

Saturday, October 13th, 2018

In some states, Hispanics account for a large percentage of spending power and tax revenues overall. In both Texas and California, Hispanic households had more than $125 billion in after-tax income in 2015, accounting for more than one of every five dollars available to spend in each state that year. In Nevada, a state with a rapidly growing Hispanic population, their earnings after taxes accounted for more than one-sixth of the spending power in the state. In Arizona and Florida, Hispanics contributed almost one out of every six dollars in total tax revenues in 2015.

Hispanic Americans who only recently gained eligibility to vote could be a big factor in the 2020 election. Between 2015 and 2020, a projected 5.7 million Hispanics will gain eligibility to vote for the first time, most by turning 18 and aging into the electorate. In six states carried by Republicans in 2016, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the estimated population of newly eligible Hispanic voters will exceed Donald Trump’s 2016 margin of victory. In Michigan, a state Trump carried by 10,704 votes, almost 46,300 Hispanic Americans will gain eligibility by 2020.

From here.


A much higher estimate of undocumented persons in U.S.

Thursday, October 11th, 2018

A team of Yale researchers say that the number of undocumented persons in the U.S. is probably about 22 million for 2015, close to double the conventional estimate of 11.3 million.  They offer a conservative estimate of 16.2 million, an average estimate of 22.1 million, and a high estimate of 29.5 million.

The conventional estimate draws from annual surveys of the American public, to find an estimate of total foreign born. It then subtracts the formal number of foreign born persons here legally, to get to a residual number of 11.3 million. In contrast, the Yale researchers built a model of illegal immigration flows, from visa over stays and from Mexican border crossings, and then subtracted estimates of voluntary outflows and deaths.  They suggest that the conventional method is flawed because of the annual population survey: “It is plausible that undocumented immigrants are more difficult to locate (and survey) than other foreign-born residents of the United States, and if contacted, undocumented immigrants might misreport their country of origin, citizenship, and/or number of household residents fearing the possible consequences of revealing their true status.”

Where are these additional people? What do they do? The Yale study implied that there roughly 7 million more undocumented workers in the U.S. than is conventionally estimated (about 8 million).

Some details

They arrive at this higher estimate by, first, agreeing to start with the conventional estimate of 3.5 million persons in 1990.

They then estimate visa over stayers, benchmarking from the first official estimate of visa over stayers, done in 2016. Next, they estimate that from 1990 through 2004, the Mexican border apprehension rate was first very low, about 20%, then came to 39% — in other words, in 2004 61% of attempted illegal crossings were successful. They agree that apprehension rates have since increased

They estimate that 40% of visa over stayers leave within one year, and that further voluntary emigration in later years drops eventually to 1%. Their estimates for border crosser returnees is about the same.   They use a mortality rate of 0.7% for undocumented persons in the U.S.

They ran one million simulations of these kinds of estimates to arrive at their conclusions.

Young Latinos in the US today

Sunday, October 7th, 2018

With a median age of 28, Latinos are also the nation’s youngest major racial or ethnic group.

Rapid growth of youth: The population of the youngest Latinos, those under 18 years old, grew by 22% from 2006 to 2016, a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data finds. This growth helped keep the nation’s youth population steady at about 73 million over the past decade. During this time, the under-18 population of whites and blacks declined by 11% and 7%, respectively.

Intermarriage up: Among young adults, more than half (58%) of third generation or higher Hispanics are married to someone who is not Hispanic, compared with 36% of the second generation and just 5% of immigrants.

English language assimilation: Similar shares of young Hispanic adults are either English dominant (41%) or bilingual (40%), while 19% are Spanish dominant. By contrast, among Hispanics ages 36 and older, a lower share is English dominant (24%), with higher shares rating themselves bilingual (32%) and Spanish dominant (44%).

From Pew Research

Rich countries need to improve immigration policies

Saturday, October 6th, 2018

The Economist says, “Migrants can make the world more prosperous, but voters need convincing…. The influx should be orderly and legal as well as humanely handled. Migrants should be encouraged to work. They should be helped to fit in. And they should be seen to pay their way.

America’s flexible labour market makes it easy for migrants to find entry-level jobs, and its meagre welfare state means they have to. The unemployment rate for immigrants is 4% compared with 16% in Sweden, where benefits are fatter and unions have negotiated industry-wide pay scales that price unskilled migrants out of jobs (see chart 2). The National Academies of Sciences found that even immigrants who drop out of high school are net contributors to the public purse if they arrive in America before the age of 25

Cultural assimilation is startlingly quick in America. Fully 60% of foreign-born Latinos speak mostly Spanish, but by the next generation this has fallen to 6%, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Some 15% of newlywed foreign-born Hispanics in 2015 were hitched to non-Hispanics; among US-born Hispanics it was a whopping 39%. For Asians the figures were 24% and 46%.

And elsewhere…..

Nearly every rich country has an ageing population and a shortage of workers to care for them. Yet surprisingly little effort has been made to train foreign workers to meet this demand. The German government, anticipating a huge shortfall of geriatric nurses, is training young Vietnamese in Hanoi in both nursing and the German language. But such examples are rare.

Raffy Fermin moved from the Philippines to the United Arab Emirates to fix cars. Locals love flashy vehicles, but would not be seen dead under one. So Porsche, a German firm, sponsors a school in Manila that teaches young Filipinos how to service its machines. When they qualify, Porsche offers them jobs in the Gulf.

The Economist August 25 2018