Archive for the ‘Demographics’ Category

A mosque in Nebraska

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019

In 1990, Lexington Nebraska, population about 10,000, had less than 100 residents that were foreign-born. Today close to half of its adult population is foreign-born. In 2018, Edvin Ortiz, son of Guatemalan immigrants, and Vanessa Lo, daughter of Cambodian immigrants, were selected by their classmates—a student body of 880 that speaks 30 languages and hails from 40 countries—to represent them as homecoming king. Mexicans and Guatemalans account for about a large share of the population today.

About half of the foreign-born population speaks English “less than well.” Half speak Spanish at home. About half of the foreign-born population are naturalized citizens. Over 60% did not complete high school.

Many Muslims live in there, drawn there by a meat-processing plant owned by Tyson Fresh Meats which employs 2,700 people

The Islamic Center had been hosting prayers for eight years in two small storefronts on the edge of downtown Lexington until 2016. Then purchased a closed laundromat next door and expanded into the new space.

The city and several townspeople objected when the center sought a conditional-use permit to allow the worship center in a district zoned for commerce. City officials said the expanded mosque could deter commercial development. Concerns were raised about a lack of parking spaces owned by the mosque, even though it sits next to at least two public parking lots.

The city ultimately sued the Islamic Center for ignoring the denial of its conditional-use permit.

The ACLU of Nebraska intervened on behalf of the Islamic Center, and the Justice Department began investigating whether the city was discriminating against the center’s right to worship.

Then the city and the Islamic Center began talking about a compromise. They reached agreement on the wording of a conditional-use permit. The agreement limited the occupancy of the expanded mosque to 200 people.

The mosque also agreed to not oppose any special liquor licenses in the area, such as those issued for an annual town festival held on a public parking lot next to the mosque. The Islamic Center also agreed to adhere to all city building ordinances. The agreement protects the interests of a nearby bar and grill with an existing liquor license. The Islamic Center agreed not to oppose or contest future liquor license applications.

Source here, and thanks to reporter Paul Hammel.

Dreamer wins Rhodes Scholarship

Thursday, January 17th, 2019

Jin Park flew with his parents from Korea to the U.S. in 1997. We settled in a Korean enclave in Flushing, Queens. The language, people, smells and flavors reminded us of home, and that helped ease our transition into our new life. My mother found work in a beauty salon, providing manicures and facials. My father was hired as a line cook in a Korean restaurant, working 12-hour shifts six days a week. I started going to a school in a nearby Korean church. I slowly began adapting to my new life. I found comfort in learning how to speak English.” A graduate of Harvard, Park begins his Rhodes Scholarship in the Fall.

The formal title of the Dreamer executive order is DACA – Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, signed June 15, 2012.

Selected findings from a 2017 survey of Dreamers:

Has an American citizen as spouse, child or sibling: 73%.
Employed: 91%
Got driver’s license for first time: 80%
Impact of DACA on employment: about 60% say that it led improved job prospects, more income, get a credit card, etc.
Bilingual is an asset to employer: 80%
Pursued education blocked in the past: 65%
In school now: 44%, of which half are in college bachelor’s program
Residence: about 25% in CA, 15% in Texas.
Hispanic: 93%
Median age: 25 (youngest is 16, oldest is 35)
Age when came to U.S.: median 6 years old.

Some popular conceptions on illegals, crime and the wall

Tuesday, January 15th, 2019

Around a third of U.S. adults (35%) incorrectly said that most immigrants are in the country illegally, while 6% said about half of all immigrants are here illegally and half legally. (Right answer: one quarter.)

A majority of non-college grads of both Republican and Democratic leanings said in June 2018 that most immigrants are here illegally. The lowest number of the majority-are-here-illegally opinion were Democratic college grads, and even that was 20%.

About half of conservative Republicans (47%) believe that unauthorized immigrants commit more crimes. Of all Americans, 26% believe they commit more crimes, and only 6% of liberal Democrats believe they do.

In a mid 2018 survey, Nearly three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (74%) support expanding the wall, while an even larger share of Democrats and Democratic leaners (83%) oppose it.

Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%), including 89% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans, said in June 2018 that they favor such permanent legal status.

From Pew Research

 

U.S. stands out for positive views on immigration

Sunday, January 13th, 2019

The U.S, Japan and Spain stand out among 27 countries in terms of positive regard for immigration.

Worldwide, a record 258 million people lived outside their country of birth in 2017, up from 153 million in 1990. Their share of the global population is also up, reaching 3.4% in 2017, compared with 2.9% in 1990.

In a survey of 27 countries, 45% of the median country’s population wanted less immigration, 36% wanted no change, and 14% wanted more immigration.

The countries with the lowest percentage wanting less immigration were Japan (13%), U.S.(27%), Spain (30%), and Canada (29%).

The countries with the highest percentage wanting more immigration were the U.S (24%), Japan (28%, and Spain (23%).

From Pew Research

Worldwide migration: those actively planning to migrate

Friday, January 11th, 2019

Gallup analyzed in 2012 how many people who wanted to migrate were in fact actively planning to migrate. It found that among those who say that they want to migrate permanently, 8% plan to do so in the next 12 months and of those 39% were actually preparing to move.

Gallup’s published figures are worldwide, but let’s assume that they apply to specific countries. Take Honduras, where one fifth of the GDP comes from remittances from outside the country, and where per Gallup 47% of adults want to out migrate. (See Gallup here.)

Honduras has about 9 million residents. Thus, about 4.5 million residents (in total families) would be candidates for migration.  Of these 39% of 8% of the 4.5 million, 140,000 would be actively arranging to move.

Take the U.S. with a population of 320 million, of which 16% of adults want to migrate.  About 10 million would be actively arranging to move.

Worldwide in-migration: the most desired countries

Wednesday, January 9th, 2019

 

According to Gallup, although the image of U.S. leadership took a beating between 2016 and 2017, the U.S. continues to be the most desired destination country for potential migrants, as it has since Gallup started tracking these patterns a decade ago.

One in five potential migrants (21%) — or about 158 million adults worldwide — name the U.S. as their desired future residence. Canada (6%), Germany (6%), France (5%), Australia (5%) and the United Kingdom (4%) each appeal to more than 30 million adults.

Among large countries, China, Russia and Brazil are at 1%.

Worldwide out-migration: the hardest impacted areas

Monday, January 7th, 2019

Gallup’s surveys throughout 2015- 2017 found 15% of the world’s adults — or more than 750 million people — saying they would like to move to another country if they had the opportunity. This is up from 14% between 2013 and 2016 and 13% between 2010 and 2012, but still lower than the 16% between 2007 and 2009.

Desire to migrate:

Sub-Saharan Africa 33%
Latin America and Caribbean 27% (was 18% in 2010)
Non-EU Europe 26%
Middle East and North Africa 24%
European Union 21%
North America 14% (was 10% in 2010)

In all areas, the desire to migrate rose in the past ten years. The rise was largest in the two areas noted above. The one in six Americans (16%) in 2017 who said they would like to move to another country is the highest measure to date.

At least half of adults want to leave in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Haiti, Albania, El Salvador and Democratic Republic of Congo. The largest country with a very high migration desire is Nigeria, with 49%. Next to El Salvador, the next highest rates in Latin America is the Dominican Republic (49%) and Honduras (47%).

Immigration pressures on Europe vs U.S.

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019

Europe is under much greater immigration pressure from Africa than is the U.S. from Latin America. The pressure will increase:

The European immigration context today looks much like the United States did three decades ago. In Europe, which long ago made its demographic transition to low birth rates, declines in fertility in the 1970s and 1980s set the stage for a situation in which the number of working-age residents is in absolute decline.

Countries in the North Africa and Middle East region, in contrast, have had continued high fertility, creating bulging populations of young people looking for gainful employment in labor markets plagued by low wages and the scarcity of steady work. Further to the south, population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with still lower relative earnings, remain among the highest in the world…

As an example, we predict the number of African-born first-generation migrants aged 15 to 64 outside of sub-Saharan Africa to grow from 4.6 million to 13.4 million between 2010 and 2050. During this same period, the number of working-age adults born in the region will expand from under half a billion to more than 1.3 billion, meaning that international migration would only absorb 1 percent of the overall population growth. … The coming half century will see absolute population growth in sub-Saharan Africa five times as large as Latin America’s growth over the past half century.

If Americans want to imagine the political tensions over immigration in the European Union, imagine try to imagine the current US political climate if instead of having the total number of unauthorized immigrants falling during the last 10 years, the total had instead been increasing strongly over the last 10 years–and was predicted to keep doing so into the future.

Drawn from Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh, Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run.  Fall 2016 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Why high skilled immigration is so strong

Friday, December 21st, 2018

The overall number of high-skilled migrants to OECD countries increased by 120% from 12 million in 1990 to 27 million in 2010.  Most OECD destination countries show greater skill selection in 2010 than 1990. The immigration policies of many destination countries are becoming increasingly selective (e.g., de Haas et al. 2014). For example, we see that Canada is consistently selective, while the United Kingdom demonstrates the largest increase in selectivity. The United States is a notable exception, along with Italy, Portugal, and New Zealand.

The emigration rates of college-educated individuals are always greater than their lesser-educated compatriots across all countries and at every level of development. Why?

First, high-skilled people are more likely to be endowed with skills that are both in demand and globally transferrable. They are able to obtain job offers in advance of emigrating and clearing migration policy hurdles that favor higher levels of human capital. If they are using other migration channels (such as family preferences or lotteries), they know they will find employment or assimilate more easily upon their arrival. In addition, high-skilled migrants generally integrate into the host societies more easily as they are more likely to have better linguistic and cultural as well as professional knowledge of the destination society.

They have better access to global information sources through their social and professional networks. They can better access financial resources and credit. As a result, they are able to meet the financial costs of migration more easily. The highest skilled emigration rates are observed from middle income countries.

This report shows that 20%-50% of migrants leave within five years of arrival, with some variability by country pair and time period. High-skilled migrants appear more likely to leave than low-skilled migrants. At the very highest skill levels, return rates from the United States become substantially lower.

A migrant is defined as high-skilled if he or she has completed at least one year of tertiary education.

From here.

Why Trump is fighting over The Wall

Tuesday, December 18th, 2018

The Wall is smack dab in the center of the movement of voters switching between the two parties in successive Novembers. People who voted for Obama, then Trump, and then voted Democratic in November 2018 are the “switcher” voters today.  A poll reveals that Trump’s Wall is not just aimed at his base, but at the relatively small band of voters who switch.

David Leonard of the NY Times interpreted a poll of switchers this way: “People who voted for both Barack Obama and Donald Trump are closer to loyal Republicans on immigration and gun control — but much closer to loyal Democrats on health care, jobs and education.”

The poll categorized voters along a spectrum of loyal Democrats to loyal Republicans, with switchers in the middle (those who switched in any direction the past few elections. It asked about building The Wall:

“Our preliminary results suggest that many voters who swung to Democrats in 2018 are to the right on the issue of border security. While straight Democratic voters oppose increasing border security, including “building a fence along part of the US border with Mexico” by a 66-7 margin, Obama-Trump voters who swung Democratic support increased border security by a 63-12 margin, up to a 73-13 margin for Romney-Trump voters who swung Democratic in 2018.”

I assume that Trump understands this dynamic, which is why he has raised building a wall to the level of a national crisis. the switchers want The Wall, by a not overwhelming majority.

Abolishing ICE

Switchers do not want to abolish ICE: “Respondents across the political spectrum opposed abolition of ICE. While loyal Democrats narrowly supported outright abolition of ICE, every other group of voters on net opposed abolition. We note that while abolition of ICE is typically couched with a reminder that border-related crimes in fact remain crimes with or without ICE, and would be pursued as such by traditional law enforcement agencies at the Federal, state, and local levels, here we simply asked respondents whether they approved or disapproved of outright abolition. That said, there is not presently widespread political support for abolishing ICE.”