Population decline has been baked in for over 30 years
The fertility rate is 1.2. It was last at the replacement rate of 2.1 in 1986.
The population of Ukraine has been shrinking since 1990, when it attained its maximum of 51.6 million inhabitants, It is estimated that between 1990 and 2022 Ukraine would have lost about 10.7 million people (more than 20% of its population), while Russia lost 1.3% of its population. The actual population size of Ukraine would be even smaller than the 43.8 million estimated by the United Nations: Only around 37.9 million. Accordingly, directly prior to the war, the demographic crisis of Ukraine caused by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the occupation of the Donbas region, and emigration and low fertility, would have caused a decline of the population of his country of more than 26% between 1990 and 2022.
Exiting due to the War
From the Center for Immigration Studies (as of October, 2022)
Around seven million Ukrainians have sought refuge across Europe since the Russian invasion, most of them women and children, since men aged 18-60 are not allowed to leave the country.
Around four million have registered for “Temporary Protection” in the European Union, a status not available for the 2.5 million who sought refuge in non-EU countries.
Permanent return doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for most who left Ukraine: Only 10 percent of returnees from abroad have stayed. Most of those who left Ukraine come from provinces that are now mostly controlled by Russian forces.
The number of refugees from Ukraine recorded in these neighboring countries are as follows (based on UNHCR’s data October 11, 2022): Some 16,000 Ukrainians sought refuge in Belarus, 2.9 million in Russia, 94,000 in Moldova, 82,000 in Romania, 30,000 in Hungary, 97,000 in Slovakia, and 1.4 million in Poland.
Desire to emigrant, before the War
Delmi Policy Brief, 2022, drawing upon a pre-war survey of Ukrainians:
The number of refugees from Ukraine recorded in these neighboring countries are as follows (figures are rounded; unless noted otherwise, all figures provided in this report are based on UNHCR’s data portal as of October 11, 2022): Some 16,000 Ukrainians sought refuge in Belarus, 2.9 million in Russia, 94,000 in Moldova, 82,000 in Romania, 30,000 in Hungary, 97,000 in Slovakia, and 1.4 million in Poland.
During the years 2007 to 2021 slightly more than ¼ 26% of Ukrainian stated that they have a desire to move to another country. This corresponds to about 12 million people. I’ve always expressing a wish to move, 47% wanted to move to the EU country. Outside of the EU, the most popular countries with the United States at 15%, Russia at 13%, and Canada at 6%. 36% said they wished to move to Germany that was followed by Poland at 15% followed by Italy at 11%.